Impact on India
In the longer term, Trump is clear he wants to erect a ‘Fortress America’ so its wealth is not ‘stolen’ away by the likes of Mexico, India and China. One can expect a high tariff regime. China will be the worst hit with a possible 60 percent tariff on imports, India too will not be spared. Higher tariffs could be crippling to industries like India’s labour intensive diamond polishing units who export about 45 percent of output to the US.
Trump’s anti-immigrant line will also be seen in high penalties and even jail terms for visa overstays and those caught entering illegally. This could deal a big blow to India’s IT sector which relies heavily on the US market for orders and receives a large portion of US work visas.
Trump’s pick, Stephen Miller for Deputy Chief of staff for policy, is clear he wants a rollback the H-1B visa programme – a scheme where corporates can import skilled personnel when local talent is not available. “America is for Americans, and for Americans only,” he recently ranted at Trump’s final Madisan Square Garden rally.
Finally, Trump is big bad news for climate change and environment. The internation conference on Climate Change – COP29 – has opened in Azerbaijan under the shadow of a US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. The domino effect is already being felt – Two days into the two-week session at Baku, and the Argentine delegation has packed its bags and left. Trump is a believer in fossil fuels which he unabashedly displayed at his election rallies with the tag line: “Drill baby, drill”! Tapering off crude production is not on the cards. In fact , he made it clear he will restart oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, reversing a move by the Biden administration to cancel leases in the frozen wilderness. Indeed, it will be a rough ride ahead!