“In the interest of transparency, the government must clearly explain the rationale behind this revision. Was there an error in the initial data compilation, or did DGCI&S uncover discrepancies after further verification? Without a clear explanation, such revisions erode trust in official statistics, especially when no changes were made to the data compilation rules in November,” says Ajay Srivastava, founder, Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
A query sent to the ministry remained unanswered at the time of filing of this report. Despite the revision, the year-on-year growth in gold imports remains high at 186% (in November 2023, India imported $3.4 billion worth of gold).
The unprecedented jump in gold imports in November had left many analysts clueless as they feel festive demand alone cannot explain the jump in gold imports.
According to Nomura, the rise in gold imports this November cannot be explained by festive demand alone, and “it represents a meaningful step up in gold purchases for reasons unclear to us”.
Total gold imports stood at $44 bn till Nov
In FY25 till Nov 2024, total gold imports stood at $44 bn, 34% higher than a year-ago period. Analysts have partially attributed this to import duty cut from 15-6% in July budget. The free trade pact with the UAE, effective since May 1 2022, has also contributed to the surge.