Sabotaging their flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains.

A closure would also provoke international military retaliation.

Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response.

At most, isolated sabotage efforts could disrupt flows for 24-48 hours, the estimated time required for US forces to neutralise Iran’s conventional naval assets, according to Kpler.

Any such move would provoke military retaliation and diplomatic fallout with Oman, undermining Iran’s own backchannels with the US.

Ritolia said India’s import strategy has evolved significantly over the past two years.

Russian oil (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) is logistically detached from Hormuz, flowing via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean.

Indian refiners have built refining and payment flexibility, while optimizing runs for a wider crude slate.

Even US, West African, and Latin American flows – though costlier – are increasingly viable backup options.

“India’s June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix,” he said.

“If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief.”

India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs.

Also, India may tap its strategic reserves (covering 9-10 days of imports) to bridge any shortfall.

The Government could also consider price subsidies to curb inflation if domestic prices spike, especially for diesel and LPG.

“India’s June 2025 crude oil imports tell a story of strategic positioning, not panic. Russian oil acts as a logistical and financial shield, while US and Atlantic Basin volumes reinforce optionality. Though the Middle East remains essential, especially for crude and LPG, refiners are better prepared than ever to respond quickly to supply shocks. The Strait of Hormuz remains a low-risk but high-impact chokepoint – and India’s refining sector is aligning itself to ensure continuity, flexibility, and resilience,” he added.

Between June 1st and 19th, India imported an estimated 2.1-2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude, maintaining Russia’s share at over 35 per cent of India’s total crude intake.